The Idaho catch

Is the partisan gap in Idaho just too big?

The national off-year election calendar has run its course for 2025, to remarkable consistency.

Will any echoes from it show in the 2026 elections in Idaho? Maybe few.

Nationally, over the last 10 months or so, Democrats have done well. They have flipped - depending on how you count - around 25 to 30 offices around the country, from governor of Virginia to a rural legislative district in Georgia to the mayoralty of Miami, often in places where Republicans have long won easily. Even where they fell short, as recently in a Tennessee congressional district, they improved massively on their 2024 numbers. While these mostly special elections do tend to draw smaller electorates and aren’t exactly the same as general elections, some drew large numbers of voters.

Consistently, Democrats are running about 13 to 15 points ahead of 2024. These elections can involve special circumstances and we’re still most of a year before the 2026 mid-term. But these results may be a national harbinger.

Might some of this translate to changes in Idaho politics next year?

You can never be entirely sure. But the short answer may be: A little, but for the moment don’t expect too much.

A 13-to-15 point gain for Democrats could matter a lot wherever Democrats have been losing by that percentage or less. That applies to quite a few national congressional and other districts.

But in Idaho, the numbers are more daunting. Idaho could look a little like the Tennessee 7th congressional district election from earlier this month (which drew a large electorate), where a standard Republican 22% advantage fell to 9%, a big decline but not enough to flip the seat.

In 2024, these were the winning margins for Republicans toward the top of the ballot: Donald Trump for president, 46.5%; Representative Russ Fulcher, 38.5%; Representative Mike Simpson, 29.6%. A shift of around 14% to a Democrat would cut into those leads but wouldn’t come close to erasing them.

What about the legislature? A review of those races provide just limited areas where the recent Democratic shift might matter. In 2024, I count 46 Republican legislative candidates who were opposed by Democrats (not just independents or third parties) who received at least 70% of the general election vote - meaning their winning margins were at least 40%. A shift away from them of 14% or so would barely be noticed. Some change much larger than that would be needed to unseat them.

Are there any seats whose results from last year where a Democratic shift could plausibly make a difference? Yes, an even 10 of them.

Two of those already are held by Democrats. Senator Rod Taylor of District 26, which includes Jerome and Blaine counties, won last time by a thin plurality, only about 1.5% more than the Republican. He surely is a top Republican target for 2026, and a relatively favorable Democratic environment could make the difference in 2026. In west Boise’s District 15, Representative Steve Berch was held to a one-point margin last time, and also could use all the bigger-picture help he could get.

But there also are eight Republican legislators whose races last time were just close enough to put them at risk if the Democratic national trend holds and extends to Idaho. Two legislators from Moscow-based District 6 won by only modest percentages last time, as did both of the Republicans in hotly-contested District 15. In District 26 (Blaine and Jerome) that tight Senate race wasn’t an aberration, as both Republican House members there also had close calls. It was the same story in Pocatello-based District 29, where Democrat James Ruchti wasn’t opposed last time (but likely will be next year), but both House members were held to modest wins.

Of course, a year from now the picture could look different. Republicans might be in a better position than today.

Or worse.